文摘
背景:有哪些儿童咳嗽最不确定性和最不可能经历的并发症。目的:获得临床并发症的预测规则在学龄前儿童向初级护理急性咳嗽。研究设计:前瞻性队列研究。设置:八个通用实践在莱斯特,英国。方法:学前儿童对<咳嗽或= 28天,没有哮喘被招募。社会人口、病史和检查数据收集和单变量逻辑回归用于探索与并发症的关系。这些被定义为任何新的症状,标志,或者一个初级保健医生诊断确定父reconsultation发起,或住院,咳嗽之前解决。这些因素与更强的关系(P < 0.2)然后使用多变量逻辑回归模型来识别与并发症相关的独立因素。结果:检测前并发症的概率是10%。在单变量分析,热(优势比[或]= 4.86; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.74 to 13.6), chest signs (OR = 2.72; CI = 1.06 to 6.96), and tachypnoea (OR = 3.80; CI = 1.22 to 11.8) were associated with complications. On multivariable analysis, only fever (OR = 5.56; CI = 1.75 to 17.6) and chest signs (OR = 2.88; CI = 1.02 to 8.05) were independently associated with complications. These ORs translate into post-test probabilities of complications of 6% for children with neither fever nor chest signs, 18% for children with chest signs, 28% for children with fever, and 40% for children with fever and chest signs. CONCLUSIONS: If validated, this clinical prediction rule could be used to individualise the management of acute cough in pre-school children.