TY -的T1 -急性哮喘流行、天气和花粉在英格兰,1987 - 1994年摩根富林明-欧洲呼吸杂志》乔和J SP - 694 LP - 701欧元六世- 11 - 3盟Newson R AU -斯维盟——阿奇博尔德,E盟——Emberlin J盟——Hardaker P AU -科利尔,C Y1 - 1998/03/01 UR - //www.qdcxjkg.com/content/11/3/694.abstract N2 -最近流行的急性哮喘引起了猜测,如果原因是已知的,早期预警可能是可行的。特别是一些流行病似乎与雷暴有关。我们想知道危险因素预测流行病可以被识别。Daily asthma admissions counts during 1987-1994, for two age groups (0-14 yrs and > or = 15 yrs), were measured using the Hospital Episodes System (HES). Epidemics were defined as combinations of date, age group and English Regional Health Authority (RHA) with exceptionally high asthma admission counts compared to the predictions of a log-linear autoregression model. They were compared with control days 1 week before and afterwards, regarding seven meteorological variables and 5 day average pollen counts for four species. Fifty six asthma epidemics were identified. The mean density of sferics (lightning flashes), temperature and rainfall on epidemic days were greater than those on control days. High sferics densities were overrepresented in epidemics. Simultaneously high sferics and grass pollen further increased the probability of an epidemic, but only to 15% (95% confidence interval 2-45%). Two thirds of epidemics were not preceded by thunderstorms. Thunderstorms and high grass pollen levels precede asthma epidemics more often than expected by chance. However, most epidemics are not associated with thunderstorms or unusual weather conditions, and most thunderstorms, even following high grass pollen levels, do not precede epidemics. An early warning system based on the indicators examined here would, therefore, detect few epidemics and generate an unacceptably high rate of false alarms. ER -