RT期刊论文SR电子T1发展和囊性纤维化JF欧洲呼吸杂志JO欧洲呼吸ĴFD欧洲呼吸协会SP的1-和2-年死亡率预测模型外部验证1900224 DO 10.1183 / 13993003.00224-2019 VO 54 3 A1 Stanojevic，188bet官网地址三社A1赛克斯，詹娜A1斯蒂芬森，安妮L. A1阿伦，肖恩D. A1惠特莫尔，乔治A. YR 2019 UL //www.qdcxjkg.com/content/54/3/1900224.abstract AB介绍我们的目的是开发用于预测患者的囊性纤维化（CF）死亡的1年和2年的风险的临床工具。该模型考虑了被用来开发使用门槛回归预测模型的风险患者的整体健康状况，以及在计算death.Methods加拿大CF登记数据的1982年至2015年的风险间歇性冲击事件的风险。2年的死亡风险估计尚存在第二年给予生存的第一年的条件概率。英国CF登记数据二〇〇七年至2013年被用于外部验证model.Results的CF慢性健康状况和CF间歇性冲击的风险评估为死亡的1年和2年的风险提供了一个简单的临床评分工具的综合作用个别病人CF。在≥20％的死亡风险门槛，1年的模型具有96％的74％的敏感性和特异性。The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for the 2-year mortality model was significantly greater than the AUC for a model that predicted survival based on forced expiratory volume in 1 s <30% predicted (AUC 0.95 versus 0.68 respectively, p<0.001). The Canadian-derived model validated well with the UK data and correctly identified 79% of deaths and 95% of survivors in a single year in the UK.Conclusions The prediction models provide an accurate risk of death over a 1- and 2-year time horizon. The models performed equally well when validated in an independent UK CF population.This clinical tool considers patients' overall health status and the risk of intermittent shock events to predict 1- and 2-year risk of death for patients with cystic fibrosis. The model accurately predicted death for patients in Canada and the UK. http://bit.ly/2Wbnyaq